Price fluctuation of China’s imported wood pulp spot market in 2020

In 2020, the price of imported wood pulp spot market presents a trend of “slight rise, downward probe and recovery”, which is mainly affected by the panic caused by public health events, the downward trend of global economic gravity, the first recovery of China’s economy, the marginal change of supply and demand, the recovery and recovery of pulp futures, the active going to the warehouse and other long and short factors. According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang information, in 2020, the annual average price of coniferous pulp decreased by 8.04%, broad-leaved pulp decreased by 18.94%, natural color pulp decreased by 10.54%, and chemical mechanical pulp decreased by 5.72%. It can be seen from the figure that the trend of natural color pulp and coniferous pulp is relatively close, and that of broad-leaved pulp and chemical mechanical pulp is more similar, which is mainly related to pulping cost, market supply and demand, and uses.

In the first half of 2020, the spot market of imported broad-leaved pulp showed a fluctuating downward trend as a whole. Only in January, the end of March and April, due to the bottom reading and replenishment of downstream factories, additional maintenance caused by public health incidents and rumors of Brazil’s reduction, the industry expected that the supply would be tight in the later period, the external market would rise periodically, and the price increase letter of downstream paper mills would boost the market confidence. The pulp price increased by 100-200 yuan / ton in total, but relatively low In terms of positive factors, domestic demand was frustrated in February due to the public health incident, such as domestic “shutdown”, resumption of work, delayed start-up of students and so on. The export of base paper was blocked, and domestic storage in Hong Kong was accumulated. After the outbreak of the international public health incident, the demand for foreign pulp dropped sharply. The arrival volume of China’s imported wood pulp remained stable, and the superposed market was in a big deflation cycle of slowing global economic growth The contradiction between supply and demand is further highlighted, and the price of pulp is under pressure. In December, the spot price of broad-leaved pulp rose to the highest point in the year, driven by the rise of coniferous pulp futures, the transaction after the external price rise, and the price increase letter of downstream base paper. According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang information, the highest monthly average price of imported broad-leaved pulp in 2020 appeared in December, which was 3902 yuan / ton. The average price in November was 3534 yuan / ton, which was the lowest price in the year. The difference between the highest price and the lowest price was 10.41%.

Since July 2019, the spot market of imported coniferous pulp has been in the bottom consolidation stage. At the end of March and April 2020, due to the bottom purchase and replenishment of downstream factories, additional maintenance caused by public health incidents and rumors of Brazil’s reduction, the industry expected that the supply would be tight in the later period and the external price would rise. However, the domestic demand would slow down and the foreign trade export would slow down due to public health incidents Finally, in the second quarter, the price of softwood pulp hit a new low since 2019. In the fourth quarter, when the softwood pulp futures fluctuated upward, the external market rose, and the downstream base paper price increase letter was implemented, the linkage between the pulp futures and the spot was enhanced, and the spot price continued to rise, and finally reached the high point of the year. According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang information, the highest average price of imported softwood pulp in 2020 was 5064 yuan / ton in December, and the lowest was 4445 yuan / ton in July, with a difference of 13.93%.

 

The import volume of natural color pulp and chemical mechanical pulp is relatively small, and the price is mainly market-oriented. Among them, the waste paper import ban policy and plastic ban order at the end of 2020 have a great impact on these two kinds of pulp, especially for the natural color pulp. The industry expects that the consumption of natural color pulp in the cardboard will increase, and the supply brand of natural color pulp is quite different, so the pulp price will maintain a high finishing trend. The price of imported chemi mechanical pulp has been above that of broad-leaved pulp during the year. Although the price increase letters of white cardboard and cultural paper were successively issued in the second half of the year, the supply side of broad-leaved pulp continued to be loose, and the price difference between broad-leaved pulp and chemi mechanical pulp was added, and the price of chemi mechanical pulp fluctuated downward during the year.

On the whole, the price of imported wood pulp in 2020 varies according to different pulp types. The highest prices of softwood pulp, broad-leaved pulp and natural color pulp are 5064 yuan / ton, 3902 yuan / ton and 4694 yuan / ton respectively in December, and the highest price of chemical mechanical pulp is 4183 yuan / ton in April. The lowest price of broad-leaved pulp and chemical mechanical pulp basically appeared in November. The lowest price of broad-leaved pulp was 3534 yuan / ton, chemical mechanical pulp was 3663 yuan / ton, the lowest price of natural color pulp was 4345 yuan / ton in January, and the lowest price of coniferous pulp was 4445 yuan / ton in July.

Fengcheng Zhong Paper Products always uses the imported softwood pulp to produce toilet seat cover. With the fluctuation of pulp price, the price of toilet seat cover paper also shows a trend of low in the front and high in the back in 2020, especially after October 2020, the price of paper toilet seat cover is basically changing every month.


Post time: Mar-02-2021